I got out in a tree for my first hunt of the season last week. I followed my hunting process to ensure I hunt where the deer are. In fact, I had seen target deer in this same crossing every single day of the week during the window of time I had to hunt. The wind forecast was perfect. All signs pointed to a successful hunt, so I decided it was worth the time to head out.
I got skunked.
That’s right, I saw 0 deer in the 4 hours I was in the tree. Incredibly frustrating. A tad embarrassing, given all this talk I have about hunting where the deer are and being efficient and all of that. As a coach, however, one of the most powerful tools for this type of situation that I know of is to execute Stockdale’s Paradox.
Stockdale’s Paradox comes from Admiral James Stockdale, a Vietnam POW for 7 years. He was one of the few people to survive for that length of time as a POW. When asked how he made it that long, he said that he confronted the brutal facts of his current reality while maintaining hope he would prevail in the end. Some people would only confront the brutal facts, meaning they would just be negative and miserable all of the time. Others would only have hope. They would hope to be out by Thanksgiving, but Thanksgiving would come and go with no release. Then they would hope to be out by Christmas, to no avail. Those people would die of a broken heart. It is living in the paradox of both that led to his survival.
With the goal of confronting the brutal facts while maintaining faith, let’s look at the proverbial film.
Maintain Hope: What Went Right
The biggest win for me was my set up. Pretty much every first hunt of the year is a goat rodeo for me. I usually underestimate the amount of time it will take to pack up stuff from the truck and set up my sticks and saddle. Without fail, I’ve forgotten some piece of important equipment on my first time out. As a result of that lost time and feeling that I’m late, I’ve settled for less than ideal wind directions or made too much noise in my rush to get up in a tree.
I had none of that this year. I was up in the tree in plenty of time. I could take my time to adjust my saddle location and set up quietly. I had all of my gear. It was the least stressful first sit I’ve ever had. That might seem like a small thing to some of you, but for those who experience that first-sit joke show that I usually do, it was a satisfying experience.
Confront the Brutal Facts: What Went Wrong
Obviously getting skunked was went wrong, but that is a symptom and not the problem. I want to identify the problem. Having seen multiple target deer in this same spot day after day, I had to look at the variables that changed.
The first different variable was my presence. Did I spook these deer out of the area? When it comes to this factor, I analyze a deer’s strongest senses when it comes to predator detection: nose, eyes, and ears. A deer’s nose is far and away their most effective tool of predator detection, so I dropped milkweed to determine if my scent was moving in the possible directions of the deer. It was not. I had a perfect, consistent wind blowing completely away from the deer. Sight was a possibility but unlikely as the cover I used to approach was thick and I was far enough away from the possible deer locations that they should not have seen me getting into my tree. It was a windy day near a large standing cornfield, and I was able to take my time getting into the tree, so I am doubtful the deer heard me.
Speaking of the wind, the weather was the other different variable that could have possibly affected the deer. Every day had been in the sixties with sun and minimal wind. The day I hunted contained a 15 degree temperature drop with a steady north wind and rain. A good old fashioned October cold front. Almost too much, to be honest. The forecast showed a brief rain shower followed by a partly sunny day. What ultimately happened was 15-20 mph winds and cold, steady rain. I believe the weather kept them from moving, which was proved out by cell cam pictures I received once the storm blew over (several hours past when it was forecasted to do so).
As the old cliché goes, that’s why they call it hunting and not killing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Regardless of the result of the hunt, I use this process to always take something from the woods. Incremental improvement stacked up over the years leads to a successful hunter. You either win or your learn. You never lose.